/A^n .  ^  ;  II 


GOVERNMENT 
CROP 


REPO. 


Sources  of  Informai 
Methods  of  Preparation  and  Checking 
Demonstrated  Accuracy 


UNlV  OF  Fl  l'B. 
nnruMgNTS  PERT 


SITORY 


''ashingloii,  D.  C. 


Circular  17.  Revised  January.  1913 


U.  S.  DEPARTMENT  OF  AGRICULTURE 
BUREAU  OF  CROP  ESTIMATES 

LEON  M.  ESTABROOK Chkf 


GOVERNMENT  PRINTINQ  OFFICE  :  1918 


ORGANIZATION  AND  OFFICIALS  OF  THE  BUREAU  OF  CROP 
ESTIMATES. 


Statistician  and  Chief:  Leon  M.  Elstabrook. 

Assistant  Statistician  and  Assistant  Chief:  Nat  C.  Murray. 

Chief  Clerk:  Charles  E.  Gage. 

Division  of  Crop  Reports:  Edward  Crane,  Chief. 

Division  of  Crop  Records:  Frank  Andrews,  Chief. 

Field  Service:  S.  A.  Jones,  Chief. 

Statistical  Scientists:  George  K.  Holmes,  Charles  M.  Daugherty,  and 

Fred  J.  Blair. 
Crop    Reporting    Board:  Leon    M.    Estabrook,    Chairman;    Nat  C. 

Murray,  S.  A.  Jones,  Frank  Andrews,  George  K.  Holmes,  and  one 

or  more  fieid  agents  called  in  from  the  field  force. 
2 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS. 


r^ROP  ESTIMATES  which  are  reHable  and  un- 
^•^  biased  are  important  not  only  to  agriculture  but 
also  to  all  those  industries  which  depend  upon  agri- 
cultural products.  Public  appreciation  of  accurate 
crop  reports  is  increasing,  owing  largely  to  improved 
methods  of  marketing  and  distribution,  and  to  a  wider 
public  interest  in  food  and  feed  which  has  developed 
since  the  beginning  of  the  European  War.  The  follow- 
mg  statement  gives  the  essential  facts  regardmg  the 
organization  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates,  its  sources 
of  information,  and  the  accuracy  of  its  crop  estimates. 

THE  MEN  WHO  SUPPLY  INFORMATION 
ABOUT  CROPS. 

Systematic  care  and  scientific  thoroughness  charac- 
terize the  preparation  of  the  Government  crop  reports, 
but  these  would  be  useless  without  an  efficient  organiza- 
tion and  dependable  sources  of  information. 

The  Washtngion  force. — To  begm  with,  the  central 
office  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates,  at  Washington, 
has  approximately  135  employees,  most  of  them  statis- 
tical clerks,  computers,  and  trained  statisticians  expe- 
rienced in  handling  and  interpreting  agricultural  facts, 
from  whatever  source  they  may  be  gathered. 

Field  agents. — Distributed  over  the  country  are  42 
salaried  field  agents,  one  in  each  State  or  group  of  small 
States.  These  field  agents  are  in  the  classified  civil 
service  and  are  appointed  only  after  passing  a  rigid  civil- 
service  examination  to  test  their  educational  and  statis- 
tical qualifications.  Before  they  are  permitted  to  take 
the  civil-service  examination  they  must  show  that  they 
have  had  at  least  five  years'  practical  experience  in 
farming,  an  education  equivalent  to  a  four-year  course  in 
an  agricultural  college  or  at  least  three  years'  responsible 
practical  experience  in  work  involving  statistical  methods 
or  statistical  inquiry.  They  must  also  be  legal  residents 
of  the  States  to  which  they  are  assigned.  These  agents 
are  all  men  of  high  character,  qualified  by  training  and 
exp>erience   for   their   work,    competent   judges   of   crop 

3 


4  Government  Crop  Reports. 

production,  and  familiar  with  local  conditions  in  their 
States.  Each  is  required  to  travel  over  his  State  sys- 
tematically during  the  crop  season  and  personally  to 
inspect  crops,  interview  farmers,  representatives  of  com- 
mercial houses,  mills,  elevators,  buying  and  selling 
associations  of  all  kinds,  transportation  companies.  State 
and  local  authorities,  and  associations  of  every  descrip- 
tion; in  fact,  each  is  expected  to  be  better  informed  on 
crop  production  than  any  other  man  in  the  State.  Each 
agent  enlists  the  voluntary  services  of  from  250  to  1,500 
selected  crop  correspondents  in  his  State,  who  report  to 
him  every  month  regarding  the  crops  grown  in  the  State. 
At  the  close  of  each  month  the  agent  makes  up  a  detailed 
estimate  on  the  crops  in  his  territory  and  forwards  it  to 
the  Washington  office,  with  full  explanatory  notes  show- 
ing the  causes  which  have  resulted  in  changes  from  the 
estimates  for  the  previous  month.  The  field  agent, 
because  of  his  constant  travel  and  observation,  his 
thorough  study  and  analysis,  and  his  interviews  with  and 
continuous  reports  from  many  of  the  most  competent 
judges  of  crops,  has  a  thorough  knowledge  of  the  crop 
situation  in  his  State. 

Crop  specialists. — In  addition  to  the  regular  field 
agents,  the  bureau  employs  10  crop  specialists,  1  each 
for  cotton,  rice,  and  tobacco,  4  for  truck  crops,  and  3 
for  fruit  crops.  These  crop  specialists  are  of  the  same 
high  character,  experience,  and  educational  qualifica- 
tions as  the  field  agents,  and  each  devotes  his  entire 
time  to  investigating  the  single  crop  for  which  he  is 
responsible.  They  travel  throughout  the  regions  in 
which  their  special  crops  are  grown,  maintain  large  lists 
of  growers,  and  each  is  regarded  as  an  authority  on  the 
statistics  of  his  special  crop.  Lists  are  kept  of  growers 
of  special  crops,  who  report  at  the  close  of  each  month 
to  the  respective  crop  specialists,  each  of  whom,  in  tum, 
makes  up  a  report  and  forwards  it  to  the  central  office  in 
Washington. 

County  crop  reporters. — A  third  class  of  reporters  are 
the  voluntary  county  crop  reporters,  approximately  2,800 
in  number,  each  of  whom  reports  for  his  county  each 
month  on  printed  schedules  directly  to  the  bureau. 
The  county  reporters  base  their  estimates  upon  personal 
observation  and  inquiry  and  upon  written  and  telephonic 
reports  to  them  from  aids  in  different  portions  of  the  county. 


Government  Crop  Reports.  3 

Township  crop  reporters. — A  fourth  source  of  informa- 
llon  is  the  voluntary  township  reporters,  one  for  each 
agricultural  township  in  the  United  States,  approximately 
30,220  in  number.  These  township  reporters  are  nearly 
all  practical  farmers  and  each  reports  on  the  crops  grown 
in  his  immediate  neighborhood  directly  to  the  central 
office  in  Washington  monthly  throughout  the  year. 

Special  lists  of  growers,  buyers,  and  others. — Addi- 
tional sources  of  information  exist  in  the  bureau's  special 
lists  of  growers  of  potatoes,  apples,  cotton,  beans,  cran- 
berries, peanuts,  broom  com,  maple  sirup,  honey,  cpecial 
truck  crops,  and  live  stock,  and  in  other  lists  of  buyers, 
dealers,  mills  and  elevators,  producers  and  shipping 
associations,  and  other  agencies  engaged  in  the  handling, 
transporting,  storing,  and  distribution  of  crops. 

The  total  number  of  voluntary  crop  reporters  is  approxi- 
mately 1  50.000. 

HOW  THE  CROP  INFORMATION  IS  TABU- 
LATED IN  WASHINGTON  AND  THE  CROP 
REPORTS  MADE  UP. 

The  returns  from  each  class  of  reporters  are  tabulated 
and  averaged  separately  as  a  check  one  against  the 
other.  The  county  totals  are  weighted;  that  is,  a  county 
which  produces  five  times  as  much  of  a  particular  crop  as 
another  receives  five  times  the  importance  or  "weight" 
of  the  other  county  in  determining  the  average  for  that 
crop. 

Every  possible  precaution  is  taken  to  prevent  the 
totals  for  any  of  the  so-called  speculative  crops,  such  as 
corn,  wheat,  oats,  barley,  rye,  cuid  cotton,  from  becoming 
known  to  any  individual  prior  to  the  date  fixed  in  advance 
by  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  for  the  issuance  of  the 
crop  report.  Even  the  tabulators  and  computers  who 
make  up  the  totals  do  not  knov.'  the  States  to  which  they 
pertain,  and  the  final  telegraphic  reports  and  comments 
of  the  field  agents  relating  to  the  speculative  crops  are 
kept  locked  in  the  office  of  the  Secretary  until  crop- 
reporting  day,  when  they  are  tumed  over  to  a  Crop 
Reporting  Board,  and  the  entire  board  is  immediately 
locked  in  until  the  minute  that  the  refx)rt  is  issued,  guards 
being  stationed  at  the  doors,  and  all  telephones  discon- 
nected. 


6  Government  Crop  Reports. 

The  data  supplied  by  the  field  agents,  crop  specialists, 
and  various  classes  of  voluntary  crop  reporters  are  con-  , 
sidered  by  the  Crop  Reporting  Board,  composed  of  the  I 
chief  of  bureau,  the  assistant  chief  of  bureau,  the  chief  of 
the  division  of  crop  report*,  two  statistical  scientists,  and 
one  or  more  field  agents  called  in  from  different  States 
each  month,  all  of  whom  are  expert  judges  of  crops  and 
have  had  many  years'  exnerience  in  analyzing,  inter-  _ 
preting,  and  summarizing  crop  data.  In  addition  to  the  I 
special  data  sent  in  each  month  by  the  field  force,  the 
Crop  Reporting  Board  has  all  other  data  which  are 
available,  such  as  the  Weather  Bureau  reports,  and  such 
crop  reports  as  are  issued  by  State  authorities,  private 
crop-estimating  agencies,  associations,  and  others.  From 
all  these  data  each  member  of  the  board  prepares  his 
own  individual  and  independent  estimate  for  each  crop 
and  State.  1  hese  are  compared,  discrepancies  are  dis- 
cussed and  explained,  and  a  final  figure  is  adopted  by 
the  board.  It  is  quite  certain,  therefore,  that  the  Crop 
Reporting  Board  has  before  it  more  complete,  detailed, 
and  accurate  data  upon  which  to  base  its  report  than 
any  other  crop-estimating  agency  in  the  world.  The 
members  of  the  Crop  Reporting  Board  are  unbiased, 
because  they,  as  well  as  all  other  employees  of  the  depart- 
ment who  have  anything  to  do  with  the  crop  estimates, 
are  prohibited  by  law,  under  ver}'  severe  penalties,  from 
speculating  in  any  product  of  the  soil,  from  giving  out 
any  information  in  advance  of  the  official  crop  report, 
and  from  knowingly  compiling  or  issuing  any  false 
statistics. 

HOW  REPORTS  OF  OTHER  AUTHORITIES 
PROVE  THE  ACCURACY  OF  THE  CROP 
REPORTS. 

Wherever  it  is  has  been  possible  to  secure  an  absolute 
check,  the  crop  reports  of  the  Department  of  Agricul- 
ture have  usually  been  found  to  be  surprisingly  accurate. 
Unfortunately,  absolute  checks  are  afforded  at  only  long 
intervals  or  for  only  a  few  crops,  or  for  only  a  few  States. 
The  principal  checks  which  are  available  are  as  follows: 

The  census  reports  every  10  years. — The  census  reports 
afford  the  most  complete  and  authoritative  crop  statistics 
available.  They  are  especially  valuable  because  they 
cover  acreage  and  production  of  all  crops  and  different 


Government  Crop  Reports.  7 

classes  of  live  stcx:k.  Theoretically  they  are  actual 
enumerations  and  are  presumed  to  be  accurate.  Actually, 
so  far  as  t^ey  relate  to  agriculture,  they  are  estimates, 
though  based  upon  a  larger  number  ot  returns  than  the 
crop  reports  ot  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates.  Their 
value  is  impaired  somewhat  by  the  long  period  of  time 
between  censuses,  the  delay  in  printing  the  reports  after 
a  census  is  taken,  the  different  dales  of  reporting  num- 
bers of  different  classes  of  live  stock,  and  the  fact  that 
different  methods  of  editing  (correcting  or  omitting 
imperfect  retums)  are  adopted  at  different  censuses. 
Because  of  the  imperfect  retums  and  methods  of  dealing 
with  them,  the  agricultural  totals  of  the  census  of  1900 
were  generally  too  high  or  those  ot  the  census  of  1910 
were  generally  too  low.  The  deficiencies  of  the  last 
census  are  recognized  and  discussed  by  the  Director  ot 
the  Census  in  his  annual  report  for  1 9 1 2.  A  comparison 
of  the  estimates  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  with 
the  past  census  shows  that  they  are  in  closer  agreement 
than  are  the  crop  reports  or  tax  assessors'  retums  in  most 
of  the  States,  and  certainly  far  more  nearly  in  agreement 
than  the  estimates  made  by  private  agencies. 

The  annual  census  reports  of  cotton  ginned. — The 
Bureau  of  the  Census  is  required  by  law  to  report  every 
bale  of  cotton  that  is  ginned.  These  reports,  therefore, 
afford  an  absolute  check  on  the  estimates  of  the  Depart- 
ment of  Agriculture  for  cotton. 

Reports  of  State  boards  of  agriculture  and  returns  of 
tax  assessors. — Many  of  the  States  have  boards  ot  agri- 
culture or  commissioners  of  agriculture  who  issue  crop 
reports  at  v.-^.rious  intervals,  and  some  of  the  States  have 
tax  assessors'  retums  of  crops  and  live  stock.  These 
reports  and  retums  would  be  extremely  valuable  as 
checks  upon  the  crop  estimates  of  the  Department  of 
Agriculture  if  they  covered  all  crops  and  classes  of  live 
stock,  if  they  were  based  upon  complete  and  accurate 
data,  if  they  were  systematically  prepared  by  competent, 
well-trained,  and  experienced  statisticians,  if  they  were 
issued  every  year  and  promptly,  and  if  the  retums  were 
made  as  of  the  same  day  in  all  the  States.  Unfortu- 
nately this  is  not  the  case.  Though  in  a  few  of  the  Slates 
an  attempt  is  made  to  meet  the  standard  indicated,  in 
most  of  the  States  the  tax  assessors  retums  are  incom- 
plete, are  rendered  after  long  delays,  and  relate  only  to 
certain  crops  and  omit  certain  classes  ot  live  stock.     The 


8  Government  Crop  Reports. 

returns  in  different  States  are  made  on  different  dates, 
and  in  some  States  the  retums  are  not  published  at  all 
or  not  until  long  after  the  close  of  the  crop  year  to  which 
they  pertain.  In  most  of  the  States  the  officials  in  charge 
of  the  crop  statistics  are  not  selected  because  of  any  special 
fitness  for  the  work,  and  in  practically  all  of  the  States 
the  personnel  is  subject  to  frequent  changes.  The  fact 
that  the  State  reports  can  not  be  used  as  a  satisfactory 
check  upon  the  crop  estimates  of  the  Department  of 
Agriculture  is  readily  apparent  by  comparing  them  with 
the  decennial  census.  However,  while  the  crop  totals 
reported  in  some  States  can  not  be  accepted  as  numerically 
accurate,  they  are  of  value  in  showing  the  trend  of  crop 
acreages  and  production  from  year  to  year;  i.  e.,  they 
show  in  a  general  way  whether  the  acreages  plemted  to 
different  crops  and  the  numbers  of  different  classes  of 
live  stock  on  farms  are  increasing  or  decreasing  from  year 
to  year,  and  to  what  extent  they  can  be  used  as  a  check 
upon  the  estimates  of  the  Department  of  Agriculture. 
All  crop  reports  and  statistics  issued  by  State  authorities 
are  obtained  as  soon  as  published  by  the  Bureau  of  Crop 
Estimates,  and  the  totals  of  the  tax  assessors'  retums  are 
taken  off  from  the  State  records  by  the  field  agents  of 
the  bureau  annually.  These  reports  and  tax  data  are 
carefully  analyzed  and  checked  against  the  Government 
reports  by  the  Crop  Reporting  Board. 

Private  estimating  agencies. — A  number  of  private 
crop-reporting  bureaus  make  a  business  of  preparing 
estimates  of  the  acreage  and  production  of  the  so-called 
speculative  crops,  corn,  wheat,  oats,  rye,  barley,  and 
cotion,  and  a  few  other  crops,  and  many  cf  the  larger 
firms  which  deal  in  these  products  employ  crop  experts 
at  high  salaries  to  keep  them  supplied  with  timely  crop 
information.  Many  producing  associations  which  are 
interested  in  special  crops,  such  as  apples,  peaches, 
potatoes,  and  the  like,  also  prepare  estimates  from  time 
to  time  based  on  reports  of  their  members.  A  number  of 
farm  journals  and  trade  papers  also  publish  crop  esti- 
mates of  their  owr,  based  upon  various  sources  of  infor- 
mation, principally  from  their  subscribers.  Though 
many  of  these  agencies  employ  men  who  are  experienced 
in  judging  crops  and  their  estimates  frequently  are  very 
accurate,  it  is  nevertheless  true  that  few,  if  any,  of  them 
have  the  facilities  for  collecting  reliable  data  of  crop 
production  at  all  comparable  with  those  ot  the  Bureau 


Government  Crop  Reports.  9 

of  Crop  Estimates,  and  their  estimates  often  show  the 
effect  of  bias.  Practically  all  of  these  estimates  are 
available  to  the  bureau,  either  directly  or  through  its 
field  agents,  frequently  before  publication.  They  are 
deemed  of  value  as  representing  the  consensus  of  opinion 
of  the  "trade"  and  in  most  cases  tend  to  confirm  the 
accuracy  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates. 

Returns  from  mills,  etcoators,  andstoraje  warehouses. — 
If  complete  returns  were  available  for  quantities  of 
grain,  applet,  potatoes,  etc.,  stored  in  all  the  mills,  ele- 
vators, and  warehouses  of  the  country  during  the  season, 
they  would  afford  an  excellent  check  upon  estimates  of 
crop  production,  but  such  returns  as  are  available  are 
very  incomplete.  Some  State  laws  require  that  products 
held  in  storage  shall  be  reported  {periodically  to  the  State 
authorities,  and  where  such  reports  are  available  they 
are  utilized  by  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates.  Unfor- 
tunately many  States  do  not  require  the  reporting  ot 
products  in  storage,  and  there  is  no  way  of  ascertaining 
the  quantities  held  in  those  States.  The  Bureau  of 
Markets  in  the  Department  of  Agriculture  is  rapidly 
developing  a  system  of  ascertaining  and  reporting  quan- 
tities of  perishable  products,  such  as  apples,  potatoes, 
meats,  butter,  and  eggs  held  in  storage  warehouses. 
The  reports  issued  by  the  Bureau  of  Markets  will  become 
increasingly  valuable  as  checks  on  estimates  of  production. 
In  the  case  of  rice,  the  mills  which  handle  all  of  this 
product  that  is  not  retained  by  growers  for  seed  are  com- 
paratively few  in  number,  and  it  is  possible  to  make  a 
complete  canvass  of  them.  Their  total  receipts  in  any 
year  plus  a  conservative  estimate  of  the  quantity  retained 
by  growers  for  seed  make  an  excellent  check  on  the 
estimate  of  production. 

Beet-sugar  factories,  likewise,  are  comparatively  few 
in  number,  handle  practically  all  the  sugar  beets  produced 
in  the  country,  and  keep  accurate  records  of  sugar-beet 
acreage  and  production.  The  bureau  obtains  reports 
from  practically  every  beet-sugar  factory  in  the  United 
States.  Its  estimates  of  acreage  and  production  are 
almost  equivalent  to  an  actual  census,  and  are  accepted 
by  the  trade  as  highly  accurate. 

Crop  movement. — Reports  of  the  various  transportation 
companies  to  State  and  national  authorities  of  the  move- 
ment of  grain  and  other  farm  products  are  of  value  as 
indexes  only,  not  of  total  actual  crop  production  but  of 

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12  Government  Crop  Reports. 

surpluses  available  for  distribution  through  commercial 
channels.  Though  a  large  percentage  of  the  wheat 
crop  (60  per  cent)  moves  out  of  counties  where  grown,  it 
is  estimated  that  only  about  20  per  cent  of  the  com  crop, 
30  per  cent  of  the  oat  crop,  and  40  to  50  per  cent  of  the 
apple  crop,  and  similarly  for  other  crops,  is  handled 
commercially,  the  remainder  being  consumed  on  the 
farms  or  in  the  counties  where  growTi.  It  is  manifestly 
impracticable  to  use  such  reports  of  crop  movement  as 
are  available  as  a  satisfactory  check  on  crop  production, 
but  in  the  manner  indicated  such  reports  are  of  value  as 
indexes  of  crop  surplus  from  year  to  year. 

Exports. — Fairly  accurate  statistics  of  exports  of  farm 
products,  especially  of  grain,  cotton,  and  animal  products, 
are  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Commerce.  As  in 
the  case  oi  transportation  statistics,  exports  are  of  value 
as  indexes  of  crop  surplus,  but  are  of  little  value  in  deter- 
mining total  crop  production. 

Prices. — Average  monthly  farm  prices,  which  are  easily 
ascertained  and  which  are  of  record  in  the  Bureau  of 
Crop  Estimates  for  a  long  series  of  years,  afford  one  of  the 
best  indirect  checks  on  crop  production.  The  law  of 
supply  and  demand,  like  the  law  of  gravity,  operates 
universally.  Fluctuations  in  prices  are  usually  propor- 
tional to  variations  in  supply,  except  in  cases  where  the 
normal  operation  of  the  law  of  supply  and  demand  is 
interfered  with  by  special  causes,  which  can  usually  be 
ascertained.  A  study  of  average  farm  prices  in  the  differ- 
ent States  in  relation  to  the  estimated  crop  production 
will  nearly  always  confirm  the  approximate  accuracy  of 
the  estimates. 

HOW  REPORTS  ON  PARTICULAR  CROPS 
ARE  CHECKED  UP. 

Cotton  is  the  only  crop  for  which  a  complete  and 
absolute  check  is  afforded  annually,  namely,  by  the 
census  report  on  girmings.  Comparison  with  these  for 
the  past  two  years  shows  that  the  cotton  estimates  of  the 
Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  were  accurate  to  within  less 
than  1  per  cent.  In  the  case  of  rice  and  sugar  beets, 
which  can  be  checked  by  a  canvass  of  all  the  rice  and 
beet-sugar  mills,  the  estimates  were  accurate  to  within 
less  than  1  per  cent.  Tobacco  estimates  are  checked 
annually  against  the  records  of  the  Bureau  of  Internal 
Revenue  and  are  accurate  to  within  a  few  per  cent. 


Government  Crop  Reports.  13 

In  the  case  of  no  other  crops  do  satisfactory  checks 
exist.  Statistics  which  appear  in  the  press,  in  State 
reports,  reports  of  commercial  bodies,  and  other  publica- 
tions, on  crops  other  than  those  mentioned,  so  far  as  they 
are  not  based  on  the  census,  or  on  the  reports  of  the 
Bureau  of  Crop  ELstimates,  are  frequently  more  or  less 
incomplete,  and  often  inaccurate  or  otherwise  defective. 
In  fact,  the  estimates  of  the  bureau  are  the  foundation 
for  many  of  the  crop  reports  and  statistics  of  commercial 
bodies  and  private  estimating  agencies.  The  Govern- 
ment reports  generally  are  accepted  as  accurate  by  those 
who  are  well  informed  or  who  have  occasion  to  collect 
or  study  crop  statistics. 

Ejcisting  means  of  checking  reports  on  particular  crops 
are  set  forth  under  separate  headings. 

CORN. 

No  satisfactory  annual  check  for  the  com  crop  is 
available.  The  only  complete  check  is  the  estimated 
acreage  and  production  reported  every  10  years  by  the 
Census  Bureau.  Only  a  few  States  estimate  the  com 
production,  and  even  these  reports  are  not  based  on  as 
complete  returns  or  on  as  thorough  study  and  scientific 
methods  as  the  estimates  of  the  bureau.  Incomplete 
reports  of  the  movement  of  the  20  per  cent  of  this  crop 
which  leaves  the  county  where  grown,  and  statistics  of 
the  very  small  percentage  of  the  crop  which  is  manu- 
factured or  exported,  serve  only  as  indexes  of  surpluses 
available  for  commercial  purposes.  The  average  farm 
price  of  com  is  probably  the  best  check  available,  but 
this  is  necessarily  imperfect. 

WHEAT. 

No  complete  annual  check  for  the  wneat  crop  is  avail- 
able, although,  as  the  bulk  of  the  crop  enters  commercial 
chaimels,  a  partial  means  of  confirmation  of  the  accuracy 
of  the  bureau's  estimates  is  afforded  by  such  statistics  as 
are  available  with  respect  to  crop  movement,  receipts 
at  primary  markets,  cind  exports.  The  only  complete 
check  is  the  estimated  acreage  and  production  every  10 
years  by  the  Census  Bureau.  Stale  reports  cover  only 
a  portion  of  the  wheat-producing  region  and  are  often 
unsatisfactory.  Estimates  of  private  agencies  are  im- 
perfect and  not  authentic. 


1 4  Government  Crop  Reports. 

OATS,  RYE.  BARLEY,  BUCKWHEAT.  AND  HAY. 

Oats,  rye,  barley,  buckwheat,  and  hay  are  in  the  same 
position  as  com  with  respect  to  means  by  which  the 
crop  estimates  may  be  checked. 

RICE. 

The  acreage  and  production  of  rice  can  be  verified  every 
1 0  years  by  the  census.  As  all  rice  which  is  not  retained 
on  farms  for  seed  passes  through  rice  mills  and  as  the  mills 
are  comparatively  few  in  number,  it  is  possible  to  check 
rice  receipts  at  mills  and  to  estimate  the  amount  required 
for  seed  against  the  estimated  production.  The  bureau's 
estimate  of  the  rice  crop  in  December,  1915,  was 
28,947,000  bushels.  Because  this  estimate  was  severely 
criticized  as  being  from  6  to  10  per  cent  too  large,  a 
thorough  canvass  of  all  the  rice  mills  was  made  in  1916, 
requests  being  sent  to  them  to  report  their  receipts  of 
rough  rice  from  the  crop  of  1915.  Retums  were  received 
from  every  rice  mill  of  importance  in  the  United  States. 
The  amount  of  the  1915  rice  crop  reported  by  mills  as 
having  been  received  by  them,  plus  a  conservative  esti- 
mate of  the  amount  of  rough  rice  for  seeding  the  1916 
crop,  was  28,995,000  bushels,  indicating  that  the 
bureau's  estimate  was  accurate  to  within  less  than  1 
per  cent.  The  items  are  shown  in  the  following  state- 
ment: 

The  191 5  rice  estimate  compared  with  receipts  of  rice  mills. 

Total  mill  receipts  of  rough  rice  in  bushels  of  45  pounds       Bushels. 

each 27,396,991 

Seeding  requirements  for  year  1916,  approx-       Bushels. 

imately 1 .765,800 

Mills  reporting  (estimate  for  one)  show  sales 

for  seed  of 223,578 

Leaving  to  be  furnished  by  local  elevators  or 

retai;  :^  by  farmers,  for  seed 1 ,542,222 

Local  consumption,  east  of  Mississippi  River " 56,000 

Thus  accounting  definitely  for  a  total  of 28.995,21 3 

Total  productio..  as  estimated  by  Bureau  of  Crop  Esti- 
mates in  December.  1915,  was 28,947,000 

Showing  an  excess  over  the  bureau's  estimates  of 48,2 1  3 

Or  about  two-tenths  of  1  per  cent. 

"East  of  the  Mississippi  River,  production  was  estimated  at  about  160.000 
bushels;  o(  this,  104,000  bushels  were  received  by  mills  or  used  for  seed,  and 
56,000  bushels  were  consumed  locally. 


Government  Crop  Report.s. 


15 


COTTON. 

Cotton  is  the  only  crop  lor  which  a  complete  and 
satisfactory  annual  check  is  furnished,  namely,  by  the 
census  report  of  cotton  ginning.  For  two  years  in 
succession,  in  1914  for  the  largest  crop  ever  produced, 
and  in  1 9 1  5  tor  the  smallest  crop  produced  in  many  years, 
the  estimates  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  in  Decem- 
ber came  within  less  than  1  per  cent  of  the  total  final 
ginnings  reported  by  the  census  in  the  following  March. 

This  is  brought  out  in  the  following  table,  which  gives 
the  number  of  pounds  of  lint  cotton  (net  weight)  as  esti- 
mated in  December,  annually,  by  the  Department  of 
Agriculture,  and  the  number  subsequently  reported  by 
the  Bureau  of  the  Census,  for  each  of  the  seasons  1900-1 
to  1916-17,  inclusive,  together  with  the  percentage 
overestimated  or  underestimated  by  the  Department  ot 
Agriculture  each  season. 

3ureau  of  Crop  Estimates'  figures  on  the  cotton  crop  compared  vcith 
the  ginning  figures  of  the  Bureau  of  the  Census. 


Pounds  of  cotton  (000 
omitted). 


Crop  year. 


—     Over-       Under- 


•EUtimaledby  ^^i^t 
Department  of  P^lL^^ 
i  Agriculture.         3^-' 


mated. 


esti- 
mated. 


1900-1 

4.856.738 
4.529.Q54 
5.1 11.870 
4.889.796 
6.157.064 
4.860.217 
6.001.726 
5.581.968 
6.182.970 
4.826344 
5.464.597 
7.121.713 
6.612335 
6.542.850 
7,637.113 
5338.588 
5.506.896 

4.846.471 
4.550.950 
5.091.641 
4.716.591 
6.426.698 
5.060.200 
6354.110 
5312.950 
6336.070 
4.783.220 
5.551.790 
7.506.430 
6.556.500 
6.772350 
7.718.980 
5.354.406 
5.480.012 

cent. 
0.2 

.4' 

3.7 

""'5'.i' 

.9 

■9' 





'•4' 

Per 
cent. 

1901-2 

1902-3 

0.5 

1903-4 

1904-5 

4.2 

1905-6 

4.0 

1906-7 

5.5 

1907-8 

1908-9 

1909-10 

1910-11 

2.4 

1 .6 

1911-12.               .               

5.1 

1912-13 

1913-14         .... 

3.4 

1914-15 

1.1 

1915-16 

.3 

1916-17 

)-1916 

17years.  I90( 

97,222,739 
31,637,782 
18.482.597 

98.419369 
31.882.248 
18.553398 



1.2 

5year».  1912- 

-1916 

.8 

3  yean.  1914-1916 

.6 

POTATOES. 

No  complete  and  satisfactory  check  exists,  except  the 
census  every  10  years.  A  few  of  the  principal  potato- 
growing  States  publish  reports  on  this  crop  based  upon 
data  which  are  less  complete  than  those  possessed  by  the 
Bureau  of  Crop  ELstimates.     In  a   few  important  pro- 


16  Government  Crop  Reports. 

ducing  sections,  such  as  Aroostook  County,  in  Maine, 
and  the  trucking  regions  of  the  Eastern  Shore  of  Maryleind 
and  Virginia,  the  commercial  movement  of  potatoes  is 
sufficiently  large  to  form  a  fairly  good  check  on  the  pro- 
duction in  those  sections.  The  private  estimates  of  some 
of  the  producers'  associations  are  also  of  value  in  con- 
firming the  accuracy  of  the  bureau's  estimates.  However, 
no  complete  annual  check  on  potato  production  is  avail- 
able, the  most  satisfactory  one  being  the  aimual  variation 
in  prices,  w^hich  indicate  larger  or  smaller  production  in 
each  State,  and  to  that  extent  verify  the  estimates  of  the 

bureau. 

TOBACCO. 

Aside  from  the  decennial  census,  the  best  annual 
check  is  afforded  by  the  records  of  the  Bureau  of  Intemal 
Revenue.  Private  estimates  of  the  "trade"  and  average 
farm  prices,  taken  in  connection  with  the  records  of  the 
Intemal  Revenue  Bureau,  are  also  considered  in  verifica- 
tion of  the  estimates.  These  estimates  are  exceedingly 
accurate,  usually  within  a  few  per  cent  of  the  figures  of 
the  Bureau  of  Intemal  Revenue. 

SUGAR  BEETS. 

In  addition  to  the  check  afforded  every  10  years  by 
the  census,  the  bureau  is  able  to  check  its  estimates 
annually  with  data  obtained  from  all  the  beet-sugar 
factories,  which  are  few  in  number  and  handle  the  entire 
crop,  so  that  the  inquiry  practically  amounts  to  a  census. 
The  estimates  are  regarded  as  highly  accurate. 

APPLES  AND  PEACHES. 

The  census  affords  a  check  every  1 0  years  on  produc- 
tion and  reports  the  number  of  trees  of  bearing  and  non- 
bearing  age.  The  reports  of  transportation  and  storage 
companies  and  warehouses,  and  various  growers  and 
shipping  associations,  offer  fairly  reliable  data  as  to  the 
commercial  crop.  There  is  no  reliable  check  on  the 
large  percentage  of  these  crops  which  is  consumed  in 
counties  where  grown.  Tlie  present  organization  of 
the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  includes  three  fmit-crop 
specialists  who  devote  their  entire  time  to  estimating 
apples  and  peaches.  At  present,  fluctuations  in  the 
average  price  afford  the  best  verification  of  the  bureai/s 
estimates. 


Government  Crop  Rep>orts.  I  7 

TRUCK  CROPS. 

There  Is  no  annual  check  on  the  accuracy  of  the  bureau's 
estimate  of  production  of  truck  crops.  The  best  annual 
checks  on  the  size  of  the  various  truck  crops  are  prices 
and  data  supplied  by  the  transportation,  storage,  and 
canning  companies.  The  data  collected  by  the  Bureau 
of  Markets  will  become  of  increasing  value  as  its  work 
is  developed  and  its  methods  are  perfected. 

LIVE  STOCK. 

The  only  checks  upon  the  accuracy  of  the  bureau's 
annual  estimates  of  numbers  of  different  cksses  of  live 
stock  are  the  decennial  census,  tax  assessors'  returns  in 
some  States,  commercial  movement,  and  receipts  of  meat 
animals  at  stockyards,  and  average  prices. 


SCOPE  OF  INFORMATION  CONTAINED 

[Key:  (A)  Acreage;  {%&)  acreage  in  per  cent  of  last  year;  (b)  number  of  breeding 
exposure;  (F)  final  estimates  (acreage,  production,  value);  ({)  per  cent  of  crops 
(1)  cut  for  silos;  (m)  per  cent  of  crop  of  merchantable  quality;  (n)  number;  (P)  pro 
after  abandonment;  (s)  supplies  on  farms;  (v)  values — prices  of  products  marked 
per  acre — or  colony.) 


1 

Crop.                    !      Jan.       1      Mar.           Apr. 

May. 

June. 

CereaU: 
Barley      v+                sf 

Ac 

Buckwheat v-|- 

Com v-f 



sfm 

Oals v+                sf 

Rice 

Ac 



Rye                              ...        V-!- 

" 

re 

c 

Wheat(all) 

sf 

Wheat  (spring) 

Ac 

e 

%ac 

Wheat  (winter) 

c                re 

Forage  (grasses): 

Alfal.'a.  hay v-f 

Alfalfa  seed                                v+ 

1 

%ac 

Clover  seed 

v  + 

I 

' 

c 
s 

c 
c 

Hav  (all) 

v  + 

1 

Hay  (tame)            

1 

Hay(wUd) I       v  + 

Kafirs.elc !       v  + 

Meadows                           i         ... 

i     ■■ 

.J 

c 

Millet 

Pastures 

^ 

c        1         c 

c 

:: 

Fruits: 
Apples 

■ 

1 

e 

c 
c 

! 

c 

Cranberries 

Grapefruit,  Florida }       v-j- 

Grapes                                 ' 

C 

c 

c 

c 

Lemons.  California v+ 

Limes.  Florida v+ 

Olives.  California                                - 

C 

c 

c 
c 

c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

cv 
c 

Oranges 

Peaches 

Pears ...                

•••v  + 

c 

c 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 

c 
c 

Pineapples,  Florida 

c 

c 

Vegetables: 
Beans  (dry) 

v  + 

Beans  (lima).  California  . 

c 
c 

v-U 

c 

c 
c 

c 

%p 

VcP 

Field  beans 

c 
c 

Potatoes gv+ 

Sweet  potatoes v  + 

c 

c 

e 

c 

e 

c 

Miscellaneous: 

..'.... 

Broom  com 

v+ 



c 

Flaxseed 

c 

Honey 

v  + 
v+ 
v+ 

■ 

Hods 



1 

Plowing 



1 

c 
%ac 

Tobacco                               ' 

Walnuts  (EnplishV  Cal      i 



c 

Wool v+ 

Live  stock: 

Horses 1      nv  + 

}. 

Mules                                            nv 

nv  + 

All  cattle 

de^ 
dec 
de 
deb 



Sheep 

nv  + 
v  + 
nv+ 

Lamb« 



nc 



Note.— Reports  of  prices  are  also  obtained  monllily  for  butter,  eggs,  chickens,  milk, 
ary.  February.  October.  November,  and  December:  for  black  walnuts,  hickory nuU. 
com  in  January,February,November,  and  December;  for  maple  sugar  and  sirup  in  March, 

IS 


IN  1  HE  SEVERAL  CROP  REPORIS. 

»owi  compared  with  last  year:  (c)  condition:  (d)  Iom«  from  difcajc;  (e)  Io«»m  from 
thipped  oul  of  county  where  grown;  (h)  ni-mbcr  »lock  hoq«  compared  with  year  ago, 
duction;  (%p)  per  cent  of  full  crop  produced;  (q)  quality;  (r)  acreacie  remaining 
(v  +  )  in  January  are  a»ked  each  month;  (w)  weight  per  buihel.  or  fleecr;  (Y)  yield 


July. 

Aug. 

S.,L 

Oct.    1    Nov. 

Dec. 

Crop. 

c 

Ac    " 

c 
Ac 

ic 

Ac 

c 

*c 

c 

APq 

c 
c 
c 

: 

Pq 

c 

c 
Pq 

c 

w 

Pq 

.Pql 

w 

F 

F 

F 

F 
qF 
a1:F 

F 

F 
AcF 

Cereal.: 
Bailcv. 
Buckwhea 
Com. 
Oats. 
Rice. 
Rye. 



Wheat  (all). 

c 

c 

Pr. 

Pq 

w 
w 

Wheat  (spring). 
Wheat  (winter). 

Y%p 

Forage  (grasses): 
Alialia.  hav. 

y^cp 

Alfalfa,  seed. 

c       ;  Y . .pq 

Clover,  hav. 

c 

p 
£*> 

Pq 

c 

c 
c 

^;? 

c             c 
c           Ac 

A 

A 

c             c 

Field  peas. 
Hay  (all). 

F 
F 
F 

Hay  (wild). 

c 

Y%P 

Kafirletc. 

c             c             c 
%»c         c         Y«r^ 

rcP 

c 

MQiet. 

Pastures. 

, 

Timothv.  ha>. 

c      ;      c 
c           %P 

c             c 

c 

c 

%pq           Ff 

Fruits: 
Apples. 

Apricots.  California. 
Black  and  rasp  berries. 

%p 

c 
c 

cv 
c 
c 
c 
c 

%pqv 

cv 
v 

c 

%p 

c 
c 

r 

Cant'^loupes. 

c 

cv 

c 
c 
c 
c 

cv 

V 

Y7cpq 

c 
c 

c 
c      . 

%pqv' 

▼ 

F 
Yr^pq 

YS^pq 
Fv 

c      1       c 
c             cv 
c              c 
c              c 
c              c 
c              c 
cv           cv 
c            cv 
cv          %pv 
c             c 
c             c 

c              c 
c             c 
c             c 

Grapefruit.  Florida. 

Grapes. 

Lemons.  California. 

Limes,  Florida. 

Olives.  California. 

Oranges. 

Peaches. 

Pears, 

Pineapples.  Florida. 

Prunes   California. 

1 

F 

Vegetables: 
Beans  (drv). 

V^P 

Cabbages, 

Cauliflower   California. 

' i. . 

Celery   California. 

t    I 

Ac            c 
Ac            c 

cv            cv 

c              c 
c             c 
Ac           c 
Ac           c 
c              c 
Y 

C 

c 
c 
c 
cv 

c 
c 
c 
c 
c 

c 
c 

'  .'  PV 

VV.,P 

c 
Y%p 

Field  beans. 

Onions. 

Pq 

F 

F 

Potatoes. 
Sweet  potatoes. 

^cP 
■pq     • 

■*F  " 
rP 
F 

Miscellaneous: 

Almonds,  California. 

Broom  corn. 

Cotton. 

Fla.x8eed. 

Hemp. 

Honey. 

Hops. 

Pea.nuts. 

Planlinsj. 

Plow  ing. 

c             c 
c             c 

c      '     ^c-    ivVip,-....^. 

%ac          c 

c                c                Y 

c 
c 
Ac 
c 
w 

c 
c 

c 
c 

c 
c 
c 

c 
c 
c 
cv 

c 
c 

^,pv 

"¥' 

V 

Sugar  beets. 

Sugar  cane. 

Tobacco. 

Wahua  (English).  Cal. 

Wool. 

LWs  stock: 
/Horses. 
\Mui«. 

Other  cattle. 

' 

All  cattle. 

1 

Sheep. 

1 

■  he  ■  * 





S\vine 

Honey  bees,  colonies. 

1 

1 

vealcalves.  timothy  seed,  cotton  seed,  cottonseed  meal,  and  bran;  for  soy  beans  in  Janj- 
pecans.  and  turkeys  in  January.  October,  November,  and  December;  for  turnips  and  pop- 
April.  May,  and  June;  aaid  ior  chestnuts  in  October.  November,  and  December. 
O  19 


UNIVERSITY  OF  FLORIDA 


■I 


3  1262  09216  9175 


